Potential Climate-Induced Migration Determinants and Decision Support of Anticipatory Actions and Climate-Displacement Solutions in Coastal Districts of Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. The country is experiencing climate-induced sudden and slow-onset extremes like sea level rise, salinity intrusion, floods and flash floods, drought, storm surges, tidal inundation, and waterlogging. Due to the slow onset and sudden disasters, including salinity intrusion, sea level rise, cyclones, and storm surges along the coastal belt of Bangladesh, climate-induced migration is a common scenario. Many of the coastal people are migrating as adaptation options to nearby urban centers or big cities. The study aims to explore the determinants of climate and environmental migrants, potential migration location identification, and migration trajectory determination of the climate-vulnerable districts. The study was conducted through Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment, Multi-factorial climate vulnerability assessment, Local climate scenario generation, application of Agent-based Modelling (ABM) to identify specific climate-induced displacement potential locations, and multi-variate probit regression analysis to determine the migration determinants. The study also applied participatory research methods, including Household Survey (HHS), Focus Group Discussion (FGD), and Key Informant Interview (KII) to identify the association between climatic extremes and migration from the respective study areas, and RS&GIS for detecting land use and land cover changes. The study reveals that shrinking livelihood opportunities and landlessness are the major causes of climate-induced migration.